TR3.5

China's Decline w.r.t. Currency

Houjun Liu 2021-09-27 Mon 12:00

1 China's Decline: Currency

After a less-then-successful KBhHIST201ChinasDeclineWRTReopening reopening after KBhHIST201ZhengHeSeafaring Zheng He's expeditions, there was a run on currency that cause hyper in- and de- flation due to incapable leadership and faulty systems. This caused a reliance on silver, which brings with it KBhHIST201ProblemsWithSilver silver problems.

1.1 A little history lesson…

KBhHIST201MannMing (C. Mann's) 1500s Ming

  • Originally started as bronze coins
  • Became inefficient and so started printing paper money
  • Bronze production could not match paper money
    • Paper money became fiat money— had purchasing power but no backing
    • But! Fiat money is usually good for government
      • Not influenced by metal prices
      • Could be decoupled and printed at will
      • Which…. Resulted in the Yuan overdoing it and inventing hyperinflation

1.2 Ming vs. Hyperinflation

KBhHIST201MannMing (C. Mann's) 1500s Ming

  • China tried to counter inflation by not printing money
    • Caused economic hardship
    • Deflation to the point where merchants are starting to accept counterfeits
    • One emperor came up with the brilliant idea of counterfit-proof currency, but that only helped adoption for about a year
    • Emperors kept banning and failing to ban currencies
      • Used the strategy of "your money is not worth it anymore" to prevent hyperinflation
      • Unfortunately, caused problems surrounding the fact that currency as a whole became untrustworthy

Government policies were often accidental by-products of ministerial intrigues

This widespread distrust of currencies caused the Ming to leverage…

1.3 Silver!

KBhHIST201MannMing (C. Mann's) 1500s Ming

  • People resorted to carrying around silver, which was… better, but it is quite inefficient as well => coins ultimately made up 1/10ths of transactions
    • Government gave in, started asking for taxes in silver too
    • Creating unhealthy feedback loop leading to KBhHIST201ProblemsWithSilver Problems with Silver
      • People sold silk and porcelain to side silver merchants
      • Used silver to pay taxes
      • Taxes fund operations against silver merchants
      • "Ming government was at war with its own money supply"
    • Eventually, government gave in and allowed people to trade overseas with, sigh…, silver, ushering in KBhHIST201ProblemsWithSilver Problems with Silver